The big money is not in the individual fluctuations, but in the main movements. That is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

Jesse Livermore – 1923

Here we go again… Today’s top headline from the financial news outlets: “Strong E-commerce Demand Fuels Bright Outlook for Sustainable Packaging Materials.” 🤯 Reading “news” like this, I can’t help but wonder if the journalists writing it are just slow on the uptake, or if they genuinely believe their readers are sheep living in a vacuum. 😴 By the time you read keywords like “e-commerce demand” and “sustainable materials” in a headline today, the whales of Wall Street have already completed their positioning months, if not a year, ago. What you’re seeing now are the breadcrumbs they’ve left behind, the “official narrative” meticulously crafted to lure you into the market to buy their shares at an inflated price. 🤦

For those of us who trust only the charts, these so-called “positive developments” are not opportunities; they are the most dangerous of warning signs. They signal that a trend has been over-consumed, that retail investors are rushing in with excitement, while the smart money, the colossal capital that truly moves the market, is leaving its footprints on the charts as it quietly exits. They need this “good news” to create market liquidity, allowing them to offload the positions they accumulated at low prices to the “fundamental believers” who are still driving while looking in the rearview mirror. This game is as brutal as it is real, and today, using the packaging industry as our case study, we will reveal the unwritten rules of this game. While others are patting themselves on the back for International Paper’s (IP) “stable dividend” or “industry leadership,” we have already used the capital flow map to identify the true king of this sector and the aging giant on the verge of being left behind.

The Fundamental Statement: The “Official Story” Wall Street Prepared for You

Before we dive into the charts and expose the truth of capital flow, let’s first play the role of a “fundamental analyst” and examine the script Wall Street wants you to believe. This script is typically filled with grand market projections and seemingly flawless business logic, enough to make any untrained investor’s heart race.

According to the authoritative market research firm Grand View Research, the global packaging market size was estimated at a staggering USD 1.1 trillion in 2024 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% through 2030. The drivers of this massive market are the same tired talking points parroted by the mainstream media: the explosive growth of e-commerce leading to surging demand for corrugated boxes and protective packaging, and concurrently, a global consumer shift towards sustainability. The anti-plastic movement and environmental regulations have made eco-friendly materials like aluminum cans, glass bottles, and recyclable paper products the new darlings of the market.

In this narrative, three main characters are playing out a dramatic “Game of Thrones”:

👑 The King: Ball Corporation (BALL)

• The Official Story: As the undisputed global leader in aluminum beverage cans, Ball Corporation is positioned as the ultimate winner of this era. From Coca-Cola to PepsiCo, and all the emerging craft beer and sparkling water brands, none can escape its packaging solutions. Aluminum cans boast a recycling rate of around 70%, far superior to plastic bottles, making them the perfect vessel for the “eco-conscious consumerism” narrative.
• Core Advantage: The script will tell you that BALL’s moat lies in its unparalleled economies of scale and its global production network. It has long-term supply contracts with the world’s largest beverage companies, ensuring stable orders and robust cash flow. Furthermore, its aerospace division (Ball Aerospace), though a smaller part of the business, adds a “high-tech” halo, justifying a more ambitious valuation. According to its latest annual report, the global beverage packaging segment accounts for over 85% of its total revenue, a testament to its dominant position.
• Achilles’ Heel: What the script won’t shout from the rooftops is BALL’s heavy dependence on the volatility of aluminum prices. Any supply chain disruption or geopolitical event causing a spike in aluminum costs will directly erode its profit margins. Moreover, while aluminum is highly recyclable, its primary production is an energy-intensive process, a potential future target for environmental activists. This extreme reliance on a single material is the hidden crack in its seemingly solid throne.

⚔️ The Challenger: Crown Holdings (CCK)

• The Official Story: If BALL is the king in shining armor, Crown Holdings is the agile warrior with a sharp sword, constantly seeking to challenge the throne. CCK is also a giant in the metal packaging space, but with a more diversified product line that includes food cans, aerosol cans, and metal closures in addition to beverage cans.
• Core Advantage: The script emphasizes CCK’s flexibility and aggressive strategy. It doesn’t put all its eggs in one basket. For instance, it has been very active in expanding its footprint in emerging markets like Asia-Pacific and South America, attempting to carve out new growth avenues outside of BALL’s traditional strongholds. Its stable market share in the food can segment provides a steady cash flow, insulated from the seasonality of the beverage industry. Its Q2 2024 earnings report, showing a 12% year-over-year revenue growth from emerging markets, is presented as powerful evidence for its “growth story.”
• Achilles’ Heel: But what the script won’t highlight is that CCK’s “diversification” also means it fails to be the absolute leader in any single category. In the beverage can market, its scale and pricing power are consistently overshadowed by BALL. In its other metal packaging segments, it faces a myriad of smaller, more nimble regional competitors. This “jack of all trades, master of none” position could leave it lacking the decisive pricing power of BALL when faced with structural industry shifts. It acts more like a diligent follower than a rule-setter.

🐘 The Old Giant: International Paper (IP)

• The Official Story: International Paper is a living fossil from the industrial age, one of the world’s largest producers of paper and corrugated cardboard. In the age of e-commerce, IP is portrayed as a classic case of an old dog learning new tricks. After all, nearly every package you receive from an online order is housed in one of its cardboard boxes.
• Core Advantage: The script will heavily promote its dominant position in industrial paper and containerboard. It owns vast timberlands, creating a vertically integrated model from raw material to finished product, which theoretically gives it powerful cost control. For investors seeking stable returns, IP’s long history of consistent dividend payments (a point always emphasized in its annual report) is presented as its core appeal as a “value stock.”
• Achilles’ Heel: The part of the story the script is most reluctant for you to see is the clumsy turning of this elephant. The entire world is going “paperless,” and its traditional printing paper business is shrinking at an alarming rate. While e-commerce has boosted demand for boxes, this is a low-tech, fiercely competitive market with margins that are a pale shadow of its former glory. More fatally, the threat from alternative packaging materials like aluminum, glass, and even new types of plastics is real and growing. IP is in an industry whose foundations are being eroded. Its prized “vertical integration” and heavy-asset model will become a crushing burden in a cyclical downturn.

This script, meticulously crafted by Wall Street, sounds quite reasonable, doesn’t it? Each company has its narrative, its growth drivers, and its risks. A fundamental analyst would take this data and these stories, build complex valuation models, and attempt to calculate a “fair” stock price. They would tell you, based on some metric, that this stock is “undervalued” and that one has “growth potential.”

The Critical Turn: But Does Any of This Actually Matter?

Now, take a deep breath and completely forget the 1000+ words of “fundamental analysis” you just read. Because none of it is of any practical use for you to actually make money in the market. It is all just noise.

This is the essence of the golden rule: “Fundamentals are the rearview mirror; technical analysis is the map.” Everything you just read—”market size,” “growth forecasts,” “core advantages,” “Achilles’ heels”—are all things that have already happened or are currently happening. They are historical stories, packaged by company management after the earnings are released, and then retold to you by financial journalists and analysts. By the time this information reaches your ears, the smart money, the institutional giants, have already completed their trades based on these expectations. Any decision you make based on this information is, by definition, a step behind. It’s like being forced to drive a car while only looking in the rearview mirror. Do you think you’d reach your destination safely? It’s utterly absurd.

Let’s use another metaphor: Fundamental analysis is like going to a movie where you already know the ending. The entire plot, the characters, the twists—they were all predetermined by the director (Wall Street institutions) and the screenwriter (company management). They bought the best seats in the house (built their positions at low prices) long before the movie was released (before the news broke). And you, the average moviegoer (the retail investor), can only buy a high-priced ticket during the blockbuster’s peak run (when the news is trending), cry and laugh along with the crowd, and then leave in a daze when the movie ends and the lights come on (when the trend reverses). We, the disciples of technical analysis, don’t care about the plot of the movie. We only care about the real-time data from the ticketing system—the price and volume on the chart. We can see which seats are being quietly bought in bulk and which sections of the audience are starting to leave early. We follow the real flow of money, not the fictional movie script.

Let’s conduct a simple “thought experiment.” Imagine that three months ago, you read an in-depth analysis of International Paper (IP), praising its rebirth in the e-commerce era and its attractive dividend yield. You were moved by this “value investing” story and invested your savings. What happened next? You might have experienced a brief pop in the stock price, followed by a long, painful period of sideways movement or even a slow bleed. You open your stock app, stare at that small negative number, and begin to question everything. You reread those “positive” analyst reports, trying to console yourself: “It’s okay, this is a good company, it has a moat, it has stable cash flow.” You’re like a driver constantly looking in the rearview mirror for reassurance, oblivious to the giant pothole that has opened up on the road ahead. Now, let’s look at the chart. You would be shocked to discover that right around the time that “in-depth analysis” was published, IP’s stock price hit a key resistance level, and volume began to spike abnormally, yet the price failed to break out. This is the most classic sign of distribution! The chart, this map of capital, had already issued a warning in the clearest language possible: The smart money is leaving, and they are handing their shares over to you, the person who just read the news. This one signal is worth ten thousand times more than any hundred-page earnings report.

Conclusion: Choose Your Future – A Sheep or a Hunter?

In the brutal, zero-sum game of the financial markets, you must make a choice. Do you want to remain a docile sheep, content to graze on the pre-digested “fundamental” grass fed to you by the mainstream media, only to be sheared of your wool without even realizing it? Or do you want to become a hunter, armed with a map, with your eyes scanning the terrain, learning to read the only true language of the market: price, volume, and chart patterns?

Fundamental analysis gives you a false sense of security. It makes you think you’ve grasped “value,” when in reality, you’re just holding the bag for someone else’s profit. Technical analysis is the only skill that will allow you to survive in this dark forest. It is not a crystal ball; it cannot predict the future with 100% certainty. But it is an incredibly precise, real-time map that clearly marks the flow of capital, the shifts in market sentiment, and the hidden dangers and opportunities. It allows you to stand on the same side as the market’s strongest players, to follow their footprints instead of becoming their prey.

We have seen countless investors get lost in the fog of so-called “value investing” and “fundamental analysis,” wasting enormous amounts of time and money only to end up with nothing. Their problem wasn’t a lack of effort; it was that they were using the wrong tools and reading the wrong map from the very beginning. They were staring at the rearview mirror, yet expecting to win a forward race.

It is time to abandon these outdated dogmas. It is time to stop being the “news reader” who is always the last to know. The real rules of the game have always been written on the chart. Mastering the ability to read this map is the only path to achieving financial freedom and taking control of your own destiny.

Do not hesitate any longer. Visit our website now and start learning how to become a true market hunter. While others are still wandering in circles in the fog of news, you will be holding the map, walking a clear path toward your goal.

Sources:

1. Grand View Research. (2024). Packaging Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report.
2. Ball Corporation. (2024). 2023 Annual Report.
3. Crown Holdings, Inc. (2024). Q2 2024 Earnings Release.
4. International Paper Company. (2024). 2023 Annual Report.

Unlocking Technical Analysis: Power Moves with Diagrams

Monthly Timeframe (BALL)

Monthly Timeframe (CCK)

Monthly Timeframe (IP)